Bulls Want to Raise Bitcoin Above $58k By October 15
The bulls intend to lift Bitcoin above $58,000 by October 15, as $820 million BTC options expire on that day.
The 20% rally that began on October 4 had the biggest impact on the expiration of $830 million on October 15, as this rally is likely to have cancelled 92% of put (put) options.
After netting $370 million on the expiration of BTC options last week, the bulls seem to be getting stronger. This explains why open interest in call (buy) options is 43% higher than neutral bearish put options.
As the data above shows, the bears have placed bets of $335 million, which will expire on Friday. However, it is possible that 92% of put (sell) options will be depreciated by the end of October 15th.
In other words, if Bitcoin stays above $56,000 on October 15th, $36 million in neutral bearish put options will be activated on Friday at 8:00 AM UTC.
Below are the four most likely October 15 expiration scenarios.
According to Cointelegraph analysis, the imbalance in favor of either side represents theoretical gain. In other words, depending on the expiration price, the number of active call (buy) and put (sell) contracts varies:
$52,000 to $54,000: 3,140 calls versus 2,110 puts. The net result is $55 million in favor of call instruments (bulls).
$54,000 to $56,000: 3,700 calls versus 1,240 puts. The net result is $130 million in favor of call instruments (bulls).
Between $56,000 and $58,000: 4,850 calls versus 680 puts. The net result is $235 million in favor of call instruments (bulls).
Above $58,000: 6,230 calls versus 190 puts. The end result is complete dominance with a $350 million bull profit.
This rough estimate takes into account call options used exclusively in bullish bets and put options in neutral to bearish trades. However, investors could have used a more complex strategy, which usually involves different expiration dates.
In either scenario, the bulls are in full control of the expiration this Friday and have several reasons to keep the price above $56,000. On the other hand, bears need a 7% negative move below $54,000 to avoid losses of $235 million or more.